The Russia–Ukraine war feels like it may never end not because peace is impossible, but because powerful structural forces keep pushing both sides to continue.
Of course, a war cannot literally last forever, but for Russia and Ukraine, it could drag on for generations.
Ukraine sees the war as a fight for national survival. Losing would mean the loss of territory, sovereignty, and possibly statehood. Russia frames the war as essential to its security, identity, and great-power status.
A clear defeat would threaten the Kremlin’s legitimacy at home. When wars are existential, compromise becomes politically toxic.
While Ukraine is fighting for full territorial restoration (including Crimea) and security guarantees (often NATO-related), Russia, on the other hand, wants to control or influence Ukrainian territory.
Russia also wants a neutral or weakened Ukraine and subsequently recognition of territorial gains. There is no overlap where both sides can “win enough” to declare peace.
On one hand, Ukraine survives militarily due to Western support (US, EU, NATO states), whereas Russia withstands sanctions through energy exports, support, or neutrality from countries like China, Iran, and others.
As long as outside actors keep supplying money, weapons, or political backing, the war can continue without collapse.
Putin cannot easily retreat without appearing weak, risking elite or public backlash. Ukrainian leaders cannot concede land without betraying popular sacrifice and risking political collapse.
Therefore, leaders become prisoners of the war they started or inherited.
Frozen conflict is acceptable to some actors, and history shows that wars don’t need to end to become normal.
Examples include Korea, Kashmir, Cyprus, Israel–Palestine, and just recently the DRC conflict (M23 rebels claiming citizenship and shared power).
Lack of trusted mediation is another factor that makes the Russia–Ukraine war far from ending soon because Russia distrusts the West and Ukraine distrusts Russia.
So, neutral mediators lack leverage, and without a powerful, trusted broker, ceasefires collapse quickly.
Ukrainians increasingly see Russia as a permanent enemy while Russian state media frames Ukraine as illegitimate or hostile, and when wars become identity-based, they last for generations.
The war will not literally last forever, but it may drag on for many more years or shift into a frozen or intermittent conflict.
The war persists because losing is unacceptable, winning is unattainable, and stopping is politically dangerous for all key players.
