The gridlock at the Kenyan Malaba border with Uganda, where nearly all Rwanda’s import and exports via Mombasa port, transit.
Kigali, December 2025 — Rwanda’s imports from Kenya have collapsed by more than eighty percent over the past year, marking one of the most dramatic shifts in the country’s regional trade patterns.
According to the Formal External Trade in Goods – October 2025 report from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), imports from Kenya dropped from US$ 117.90 million in October 2024 to just US$ 23.33 million in October 2025 — a staggering loss of US$ 94.57 million in value.
Kenya’s share of Rwanda’s imports has now diminished to just 4.85 percent, pushing the country down to 7th place among Rwanda’s main import sources.
The 80.22 percent decline represents one of the steepest annual falls recorded by any of Rwanda’s major trading partners and underscores a profound shift away from the Northern Corridor, which traditionally channels goods from the port of Mombasa into Rwanda.
In contrast, Tanzania remains firmly ahead, despite also experiencing a year-on-year dip.
NISR figures show that Rwanda imported US$ 54.69 million worth of goods from Tanzania in October 2024.
By October 2025, that figure had fallen to US$ 44.38 million, representing a reduction of US$ 10.31 million, or 18.85 percent.
Even with this decline, Tanzania supplied almost double the value of goods Kenya delivered during the same period.
Tanzania’s continued strength reflects its strategic position along the Central Corridor and the growing reliance on the port of Dar es Salaam for fuel, machinery, construction materials, and bulk commodities.
Improvements in port efficiency and infrastructure have helped Tanzania consolidate its role as Rwanda’s third-largest import partner.
The widening gap between Kenya and Tanzania highlights a deeper transformation in Rwanda’s sourcing patterns. While overall imports into Rwanda decreased by 2.08 percent in October 2025 compared to September, the distribution of suppliers shifted sharply.
China, India, the United Arab Emirates and Tanzania dominate Rwanda’s import landscape, while Kenya’s contribution has shrunk to a fraction of its former level.
The data suggests Rwanda’s business community is increasingly diversifying away from traditional East African routes, driven by cost considerations, supply reliability, and new commercial opportunities beyond the region.
In a surprising twist, the October 2025 trade report also shows Cameroon emerging suddenly as a major supplier to Rwanda, entering the top-ten import partners for the first time in recent memory.
Rwanda imported US$ 27.36 million worth of goods from Cameroon in October, despite registering zero imports from the country in October 2024.
This abrupt rise places Cameroon in 5th position, ahead of long-established regional partners such as Kenya and Uganda.
The data suggests a one-off or newly established supply route—possibly linked to bulk commodities or goods transiting through the Port of Douala—marking one of the most unexpected shifts in Rwanda’s 2025 trade patterns.
Unless conditions along the Northern Corridor improve or Kenyan exporters adjust their market strategies, the downward trend may continue, further reducing Kenya’s footprint in Rwanda’s import market.
The October 2025 report provides one of the clearest signals yet that Rwanda’s regional trade dynamics are shifting — and that Tanzania, despite its own dip, has firmly overtaken Kenya as Rwanda’s preferred regional supplier.
