Aerial view of an IDP camp in eastern DR Congo,. Many of such sites are no longer there
New humanitarian data from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reveals a significant shift in displacement trends in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Over one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) returning home in the first seven months of 2025. The change coincides with the takeover of large parts of North Kivu and South Kivu provinces by the M23–AFC rebel coalition.
As of July 31, 2025, the total number of displaced persons in the DRC had dropped from 6.9 million in January to 5.9 million, representing a 14.5% reduction.
OCHA figures show 3.4 million people are now back in their areas of origin, including 1.9 million who have returned this year alone.
For some time, M23 rebels – now operating under the broader Alliance of Congolese Forces (AFC) banner – have been accused by the Congolese government and international observers of triggering mass displacement through offensives in the east.
However, the latest statistics suggest that, since consolidating control in North Kivu and parts of South Kivu earlier this year, their presence has brought relative stability in certain areas, allowing some displaced communities to return.
Stability After Seizure
Field reports from aid agencies indicate that in territories now under M23–AFC control, active clashes have reduced compared to previous years of shifting battle lines between the Congolese army (FARDC), local militias, and rebel forces.
This has enabled humanitarian convoys to reach previously inaccessible zones and allowed residents in camps around Goma, Rutshuru, and Masisi to make the journey back to their homes.
Local sources in Rutshuru and Nyiragongo territories say markets are reopening, transport links are functioning more regularly, and some schools are resuming lessons.
Political and Security Implications
The apparent stabilisation in parts of North and South Kivu under M23–AFC control raises sensitive political questions for Kinshasa and its regional partners.
While the Congolese government continues to label the group as a foreign-backed insurgency threatening national sovereignty, some community leaders argue that security improvements, however fragile, must be acknowledged in order to address the root causes of displacement.
As international mediation efforts stall, the return of over one million IDPs since January 2025 adds a new dimension to the narrative of eastern Congo’s conflict – one where stability, even under controversial rebel administration, has allowed thousands of families to reclaim their homes and livelihoods.
