Bill Gates and Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana visited Rwanda’s National Health Intelligence Centre, which uses real-time healthcare data and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve service delivery.
KIGALI – Rwanda could add about US$237 million to its economy over the next decade by capitalising on artificial intelligence, but the country faces significant gaps in preparing young people to benefit from the technology, a new study has found.
The Ayre Index, unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM 2026) in Antigua and Barbuda, ranks Rwanda 47th among 56 Commonwealth countries for youth artificial intelligence readiness.
Rwanda scored 38.1 out of 100, below the study’s readiness benchmark of 53 – but scores high when compared to African peers. Only 15 Commonwealth countries reached or exceeded the benchmark.
The study estimates that artificial intelligence could increase Rwanda’s gross domestic product by US$237 million after 10 years under its moderate scenario. The estimated increase ranges from US$115 million under a conservative scenario to US$360 million under an optimistic one.
The figures are not annual gains or forecasts of accumulated economic growth. They represent possible effects on the level of gross domestic product after 10 years, based on economic scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund and applied by researchers to Rwanda’s 2025 gross domestic product.
Rwanda has relatively strong digital infrastructure by regional standards. The study says 4G mobile coverage reaches 98.8% of the population, while electricity reaches 72%. It also describes data prices as comparatively affordable among Commonwealth countries.
But researchers say a lack of public data makes it difficult to establish how young Rwandans are actually using artificial intelligence, particularly for education, employment and business.
The gap could make it harder for policymakers and development partners to identify where investment and training are most needed.
Rwanda has about four million people aged between 15 and 29, according to the study. Researchers say the country could build on its existing digital infrastructure by expanding practical learning and improving access to opportunities that allow young people to use artificial intelligence productively.
The study identifies five priorities: affordable and reliable access to technology; practical skills in education; stronger links between training, employment and enterprise; artificial intelligence tools adapted to local languages and needs; and safeguards that allow young people to question automated decisions.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said the ability of young people to gain skills and use new technology would determine whether countries benefit from the artificial intelligence transition.
“AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created,” Ayre said.
The index covers all 56 Commonwealth countries and draws on 1,128 sources, including official statistics, international databases, surveys and published studies. It assesses conditions that could help people aged 15 to 29 benefit from artificial intelligence.
Singapore topped the ranking with 77.6 points, followed by Malta with 75 and Australia with 71.
The researchers caution that the index measures conditions associated with readiness rather than the artificial intelligence competence of individual young people. They also note that data comes from different years and age groups, while some indicators rely on estimates or other published substitutes.
For Rwanda, the findings point to a gap between having the infrastructure to access artificial intelligence and having the skills, evidence and opportunities needed to turn that access into economic gains.
